Friday, 30 March 2012

Getting The Run Around on Hot Weight Loss Drug Co's

First OREX, now ARNA.

Earlier this month, I got squeezed on OREX and took a hit on some PUT's. ARNA over the last week or so has gone berserk too. From 1.7's to 3.5's on nothing but speculation, even the IB's are downgrading on this move. ARNA has two major upcoming catalysts, an FDA advisory panel (10 May) and PUDFA (24 June). Approval would be a surprise.



I have been in and out twice, 2.88 stopped 3.04 (Monday), 3.03av (stopped 3.15) (Wed-Fri). I was probably a bit too panicky covering pre market this morning, but despite mainly negative viewpoints from the weight loss drug Adcom (Thursday), ARNA would not fade. We got to 2.7's, hind sight should have taken half off there, given how hot the sector is. Also when it hit 3.4's, that was the best setup, mornng pop after a big run, but there were no borrows, I could have bought some puts though.


Generally some average trading on a good setup that never really played out. But my biggest mistake - maybe I was just looking at the wrong stock....


Had been burnt on OREX so never considered it as a short into the Adcom. It was much less volatile than ARNA and very over extended. Good lesson there.






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